Economic Outlook 2021

Most economic indicators are expected to post increases this year in the St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) as activity has, for the most part, rebounded from COVID-19 shutdowns.

Retail trade is expected to increase significantly throughout 2021 due to pent-up demand and increased tourist activity, and household income is expected to grow by 2.2%.

The number of housing starts is expected to increase by about 19.5% to just under 500 units, this would be a 4.0% increase compared to pre-COVID levels in 2019.
 
Real Gross Domestic product (GDP) in the St. John’s CMA is forecast to rise slightly to $17.2 billion; total GDP growth is being held back by declining oil production. Excluding the oil and gas production industry, the CMA’s real GDP is expected to rise by approximately 4.8%, as private sector industries such as accommodation and food services; transportation and warehousing; construction; and other sectors are expected to show increases in 2021.
 
Employment in the St. John’s CMA for the first seven months of the year has been weaker than expected. The labour force is expected to decrease by 1.7% as the participation rate continues to remain well below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 8.1% in 2021 due almost entirely to the decrease in the labour force.
 
The Economic Outlook report also provides a summary of the final 2020 economic indicators for the St. John’s Metro area.
 
Note: The St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a Statistics Canada geographically defined area including St. John’s and neighbouring communities. Data prepared by Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economics Division) and the City of St. John's Department of Community Services (Economic Development, Culture and Partnerships Division). Economic Development, Culture and Partnerships Division provides a variety of economic and statistical information, including an Economic Review/Outlook twice a year in addition to a monthly Economic Update. These reports and additional data can be found in the publications section at stjohns.ca.

Learn more about the St. John’s Advantage.